Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Mauritania
  • Senegal
  • Malawi
  • Kenya

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $686,891$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{668,429.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(668,429.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,408$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,523.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(17,523.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,712$ on 2020-10-08

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,717$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,391.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 174.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,391.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 170.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $825$ on 2020-10-08

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,292$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.4)}}\) (asimptote \(54,616.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $616$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,019.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 178.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,019.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,546$ on 2020-10-08

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $142,953$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{449,824.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 231.6)}}\) (asimptote \(449,824.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,486$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,794.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 242.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,794.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,192$ on 2020-10-08

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,326.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,326.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-08

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,062$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,294.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,294.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-10-08

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,156$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,288.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,288.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,017$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $615$ on 2020-10-08

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,822$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,376.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,376.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $276$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(277.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $304$ on 2020-10-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 95%
Senegal recovered 59%
Malawi recovered 57%
Kenya recovered 44%
Rwanda recovered 38%

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,540$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,129.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,129.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(158.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-10-08

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,190$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,008.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,008.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $313$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(323.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,809$ on 2020-10-08

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,809$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,832.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(179.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,003$ on 2020-10-08

Kenya⮸

Population $53,771,296$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,178$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(39,513.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $751$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{799.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(799.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,717$ on 2020-10-08