Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $686,891$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{668,429.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(668,429.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,408$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,523.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(17,523.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,712$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,717$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,391.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 174.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,391.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 170.0)}}\) (asimptote \(93.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $825$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,292$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,616.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.4)}}\) (asimptote \(54,616.8\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $616$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,019.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 178.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,019.4\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,546$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $142,953$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{449,824.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 231.6)}}\) (asimptote \(449,824.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,486$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,794.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 242.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,794.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,192$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,326.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,326.9\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,062$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,294.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,294.9\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,156$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,288.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,288.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,017$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $615$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,822$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,376.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,376.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $276$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.6)}}\) (asimptote \(277.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $304$ on 2020-10-08